[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 20W/21W S OF
17N MOVING W 15 KT.  WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION IS NOTED WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 19W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 54W S OF
22N MOVING W 15 KT.  BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS
NOTED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT.  AGAIN A BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS
NOTED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 73W-78W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N21W 7N30W 13N50W 10N63W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
19W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N92W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALONG 30N77W 27N84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 79W-85W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 87W-91W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 91W-95W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN
80W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E SIDE OF A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF
90W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
23N86W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO FINALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE ERN GULF...TO INCLUDE FLORIDA AND CUBA...FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED TO
15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA
TO HONDURAS BETWEEN 77W-87W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
69W-72W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR
13N76W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 21N70W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 77W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 68W DUE TO ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE DOMINATE 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
38N43N PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 30N67W.  UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 56W-70W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N36W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N17W.

$$
FORMOSA




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