[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF 17N MOVING
W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N WITH LITTLE TO NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE LOW
AT THIS TIME. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN THE 18W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 45W-62W. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING
W 15 KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE COAST OF S AMERICA TO 12N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N21W 7N30W 13N50W 10N63W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
19W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF COAST N OF 25N ACROSS THE
SE US WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW
OVER HALIFAX S ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO GEORGIA. A
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N83W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
GULF...MAINLY E OF 88W. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS
MOVING OVER THE NW GULF...OTHERWISE THE WESTERN GULF REMAINS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH
OF 18N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM A
SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 25N73W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N77W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST N OF THE
REGION. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N80W TO BEYOND 32N73W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N66W SW TO 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE BETWEEN
58W-70W NORTH OF 20N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS MARKED BY
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND A SFC RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1035 MB SFC HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AFRICAN DUST EXTENDING TO 33W BETWEEN
12N-27N.


$$
WADDINGTON




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