[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 20N47W 13N51W 5N54W MOVING W 15-20
KT. BROAD WAVE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 42N-57N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W
15 KT. WAVE HAS WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS N
OF 17N FROM 69W-73W COVERING MOST OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA FROM 72W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 7N31W 13N47W 9N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 19W TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 16W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE GULF W OF 88W WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO. SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE NE
GULF TO NEAR 27N85W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
TO WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST E OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT IS NW OF
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W INTO THE W
ATLC GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW GULF WITH A 1017 MB
HIGH OFF SW LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SMALL CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NW OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 21N82W COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 78W TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 20N FROM 77W-81W AND N OF 15N BETWEEN
74W-77W. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA AND W COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 26N66W GENERATING A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150-175 NM OF
LINE FROM 21N66W TO 28N61W AND HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N79W TO BEYOND 32N73W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NW OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS CLIPS THE SW ATLC PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N68W COVERING THE AREA N OF
22N FROM 63W-73W. UPPER HIGH JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
16N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N TO NEAR 28N59W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TILTS
NW/SE THROUGH 32N55W TO 21N45W WITH A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE
BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N68W. ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF 40W. THE
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY SHOW AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST FROM 15N-30W E OF 35W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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