[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 18N45W 12N48W 4N49W MOVING W 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
SURROUNDING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID FIELD.  DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S
OF 18N.  SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
HAVE BROKEN OFF TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS POISED TO TRACK
NWWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC SFC RIDGE.  THIS PORTION
IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA.  THE CARIBBEAN
PORTION IS TRACKING WWD 15-20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
68W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N25W 9N35W 14N47W 6N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-18W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
16W-27W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N93W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 96W-101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
81W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N108W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 29N97W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CUBA.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS HAVE
LIGHTENED TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA NEAR
22N82W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N60W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 80W-81W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF
HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N65W 23N68W 20N70W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 62W-70W.  ONE
DOMINATE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N42N
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N67W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FROM THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  ANOTHER BIGGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 50W-55W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N32W.

$$
FORMOSA


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