[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191823
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 21N35W THROUGH A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 3N39W MOVING W 15-20 KT.  A BROAD WAVE WITH
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW CENTER IS WELL DEPICTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED HOWEVER TO THE ITCZ.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 21N64W
12N66W 4N66W MOVING W 15-20 KT.  THIS IS ANOTHER BROAD WAVE WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
61W-64W...AND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 58W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE
REMAINS INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 8N20W 12N30W 12N39W 8N45W
7N50W 9N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 8W-20W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 26W-30W...AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N86W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO.  10-20 KT SELY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE W GULF N OF 23N AND W OF 93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 30N102W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N94W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N80W PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CUBA.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING THE MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO PRODUCING NO INLAND
CONVECTION.  SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED TO 15-20 KT
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 78W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... S OF CUBA... NEAR
20N80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N62W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N43N.  A 1031
MB MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 37N32W.  A WEAK 1023 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N23N.  ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E
OVER E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N18W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N66W.  ANOTHER BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N46W.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N28W.

$$
FORMOSA





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