[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 21N33W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 12N37W 6N39W MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE LOW/MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 30N-44N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AT THE BASE OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 20N61W 14N64W 6N64W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO THE ABC ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
REMAINS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N17W 12N34W 8N53W 11N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 54W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-14N E OF 20W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE W GULF TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR 32N92W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 95W. THE 1011 MB
LOW PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W HAS LOST
ITS IDENTITY BUT THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS INLAND OVER
NE MEXICO NEAR 23N99W TO TEXAS NEAR 29N97W. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF ALONG 93W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER N
OF 27N FROM 89W-95W. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 89W INTO THE W ATLC
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA.
OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
W ATLC WITH A 1018 MB HIGH INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 74W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 18N W OF 78W ACROSS CUBA AND TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NW TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS BEGINNING TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS W INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 14N75W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 70W-77W WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS N
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO 73W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 74W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 77W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N67W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 62W-70W WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 25N65W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 57W-65W. UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N59W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N TO
28N59W ENHANCING THE ABOVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N49W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 39W-54W.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E
ATLC E OF 34W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLC S
OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF THE STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR ALONG 32N18W
24N42W TO 22N55W WITH CLEARING S OF 16N E OF 35W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION TO OVER THE
N GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE




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