[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 17N45W 11N50W 4N53W MOVING W 20
KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE
AREA FROM 40W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N48W 8N55W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N576W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 22N70W 16N73W 9N75W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS JUST TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. ANY OTHER CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
OVER MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT IS STILL INFLUENCING
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF
26N W OF 92W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 7N29W 12N48W 8N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N E OF 17W TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-22W AND FROM 31W-40W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
MOVING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER TEXAS...INTO MEXICO
AND THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N98W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE S GULF NEAR 24N89W.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS E CUBA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 19N78W CONTINUING TO 15N82W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
16N FROM 74W-78W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF HAITI...
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SW COAST OF CUBA FROM 80W-84W...AND
WITHIN 75 NM A LINE FROM W JAMAICA ALONG 17N81W TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW VENEZUELA NE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS W TO COSTA
RICA WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S
OF 12N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 77W-83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W WSW
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE N
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N73W. THIS IS ALSO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO
CUBA W OF 77W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND OVER THE S FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 27N54W
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N64W
24N58W TO 30N56W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 28N BUT THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING FRONT IS N OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E
ATLC E OF 36W. AFRICAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH A WESTERN SURGE S OF 23N FROM 54W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
65W WITH A SECOND SURGE E OF 40W WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR THE
1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND COULD
POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N51W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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