[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 17N43W 10N48W 3N53W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING
THE AREA FROM 38W-55W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 46W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 22N69W 16N72W 9N73W MOVING W 15-20
KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS JUST TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. ANY OTHER CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
MORE PROMINENT OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION AND WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT IS STILL
INFLUENCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 91W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N22W 10N39W 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 8N-13N E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-22W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 7N FROM
23W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPLEX SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE GULF WITH A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES...TEXAS...INTO MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER MEXICO WITHIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
97W. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 86W. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W DRAWING SOME DRIER AIR S OVER THE REGION. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 19N76W CONTINUING SSW TO
14N81W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
FROM 72W-77W INCLUDING HAITI...E CUBA...AND E JAMAICA. LOW LEVEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 20N E OF 82W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE ABC ISLANDS NE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W SW ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE N CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM
67W-75W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THIS IS ALSO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO CUBA E OF 67W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDAN AND SE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N54W COVERING THE
CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL ATLC. ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N63W
24N57W TO 33N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 28N BUT THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING FRONT IS N OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTEND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E
ATLC E OF 36W. AFRICAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH A WESTERN SURGE S OF 23N FROM 53W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN 65W
WITH A SECOND SURGE E OF 40W WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR A NEWLY
ANALYZED 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N20W THAT HAS JUST EMERGED OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA AND WILL POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N49W AND
EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE




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