[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG AXIS 17N40W
10N46W 3N49W...MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS REMAINS A VERY LARGE
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING BROAD TURNING
IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. THE
WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A NEW PATCH OF SAHARAN DUST THAT EXTENDS E
TO THE AFRICAN COAST.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TILTED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR SW ATLANTIC AND ERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N67W 8N72W MOVING WEST 15 KT.  THE WAVE IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
NORTH ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 67W-74W.

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
96W/97W OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W AT 10
KT.  THE WAVE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF 20N.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS OF THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N23W 11N40W 11N46W
5N54W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 12W-17W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 17W-23W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
35W-40W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
25N.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N87W 27N91W 26N97W AND IS
DISSIPATING.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  ELSEWHERE...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...SEE ABOVE.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E TEXAS NEAR
31N95W.   DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER THE N GULF.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURROUNDING LAND MASSES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
77W-81W.  ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N95W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N50W.  EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  A DOMINATE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER
E NEAR 30N60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 18N50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA NEAR 16N18W.

$$
FORMOSA





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