[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N36W 12N39W
3N41W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND
36W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO AND/OR ENHANCED BY THE
32W/33W TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 19N58W
15N64W...INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N53W 15N60W TO 11N64W. SHOWERS IN VENEZUELA IN AN AREA
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W HAVE BEEN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/93W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH
MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 13N TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N BETWEEN
93W AND 99W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF
THIS PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N20W 10N30W 10N38W 8N42W
6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 25W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N25W 8N30W...FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N42W 6N45W 6N47W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N47W 5N50W 5N53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS TO 23N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA BEYOND 32N ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W IN
ADVANCE OF THE TEXAS-TO-WESTERN GULF TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W/93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SWEPT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE HAS
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...AS THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE
WELL-DEFINED AND CONTINUED TO GROW TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FROM ITS HUMBLE BEGINNINGS ONLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 3 DAYS AGO.
THE 19N58W 15N64W 7N68W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EAST OF 20N67W 11N78W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HAITI AND WESTERN CUBA.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN PANAMA AND POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N58W TO 24N65W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W TO 24N29W
18N36W TO 10N47W. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS
TO BE NEAR 13N18W JUST OFF THE AFRICA COAST.

$$
MT




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