[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG AXIS 19N34W
12N37W 3N38W...MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.  THIS IS A VERY LARGE
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING BROAD TURNING
IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 30W-50W.  IN
ADDITION... CIMSS ANALYSES SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AXIS.  THIS DUST IS
INDICATIVE OF A DRY STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
31W-37W.

STRONGLY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 20N55W 15N62W 7N66W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CLEARLY SHOWS A MARK
WINDSHIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AXIS.  THE WAVE IS ALSO
BELOW UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA...THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREVALENT OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 57W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W OVER S MEXICO AND THE ERN PACIFIC
S OF 19N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-92W.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS OF THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 11N30W 10N37W 6N44W
5N53W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-27W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 25N.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN GULF FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 85W-95W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
80W-82W.  FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-92W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E TEXAS NEAR 29N97W.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
N GULF.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ANOTHER IS EXITING CENTRAL AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.
TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA
AT 25 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 76W-83W.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER ERN CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N52W.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF GIORGIA
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-81W.  A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N50W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO
S FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FURTHER E NEAR 30N57W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICS
FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 30W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA





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