[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS IS A
FAIRLY LARGE WAVE WITH TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD NOTED BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 18N51N 12N56W 5N59W
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120
TO 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 18N TO
COSTA RICA  AND THE ERN PACIFIC MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 80W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND EL SALVADOR
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 83W-89W.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS OF THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N30W 7N40W 10N60W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TWO ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 15W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N90W PRODUCING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FURTHER N ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
ALONG 30N88W 29N92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 86W-93W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 81W-85W DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
90W-92W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W
OF 85W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AS A SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC PUSHES W INTO THE GULF. EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N...OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA E OF 87W...AND OVER THE S GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
S OF 22N...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25 KT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN
80W-83W.  SHOWERS EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA...AS
NOTED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N
AND E OF 82W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
S OF 15N AND E OF 65W.  EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO A NEW TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  A DOMINATE
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC.  AS OF 2100
UTC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N65W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO JAMAICA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N54W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 10N-22N
BETWEEN 30W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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