[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS IS A
FAIRLY LARGE WAVE WITH TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 19N49N TO 7N56W MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120
TO 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 80W TO
PANAMA IS MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ADJUSTED TO
THE WEST ON THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS BASED ON WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
TURNING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE NOTED EARLIER ALONG 90W WAS
DROPPED BASED ON A LACK OF SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND WAVE LENGTH
CONSIDERATIONS BETWEEN THE WAVE ALONG 80W AND ANOTHER WELL
DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 97W.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS OF THE ITCZ IS ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 6N38W 12N54W 10N62W.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WAVE ALONG 27W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK OVER THE GULF.
A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS
E-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS DIFLUENT FLOW WAS MAINTAINING SCATTRED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING TO THE GULF
COAST. NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N TO 90W. A SMALL SCALE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N94W IS
SLIDING SWWD 10 KT S OF THE RIDGE. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING NEAR 25N86W WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN ITS WAKE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
BAHAMAS...ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 73W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR
JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO THE PANAMANIAN COAST NEAR 9N81W.
AS NOTED ABOVE THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO THE WEST
BASED ON STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING IN SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD INTO
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND EL SALVADOR. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N84W DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND CONNECTED TO THE ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS TO 17N76W. A BROAD SWATH
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE
AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND 75W. ONLY LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PUERTO
RICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN EXTENSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N53W THROUGH 26N60W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
23N64W THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 38W...UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W
AND THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N18W TO 28N22W 24N27W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

$$
COBB




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