[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...WITH ONE CYCLONIC CENTER POSSIBLY NEAR
13N23W AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY NEAR 15N27W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 21N47W
13N52W TO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N54W MOVING WEST 15 KT. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N54W 15N47W 22N45W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA TO 9N79W IN PANAMA.
IT IS MOVING WEST 15  KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO FIT THE SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS BETTER. ITS CURRENT POSITION NOW IS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N78W 11N80W 12N82W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM BELIZE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W TO 6N38W 7N50W...
INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF TEXAS...LEADING TO A SMALL SCALE RIDGE ACROSS LOUISIANA...
AND EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N93W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF MORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 79W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN GEORGIA. THE OTHER PRECIPITATION
AROUND CUBA FROM 8 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS POSITION FITS THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS BETTER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N78W 11N80W 12N82W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM BELIZE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA TO
9N79W IN PANAMA. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT ORGANIZED IN ANY ONE
DIRECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DOES NOT LEAD TO MUCH EXCEPT BROAD WESTERLY FLOW
EAST OF 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 23N60W AND MAY IMPACT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER ANOTHER
24 TO 48 HOURS. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF MORE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS BETWEEN
SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
77W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N52W 22N53W TO 17N57W. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER WAS NEAR 23N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
36W...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO
30N BETWEEN 30W AND 29N52W 17N57W TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N21W TO 28N22W
24N27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 80W.

$$
MT



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