[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND
27W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N46W
14N50W 1N52W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N52W 15N47W 22N44W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA TO 9N78W IN PANAMA.
IT IS MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
SHORES OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
83W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
SOUTHERN BELIZE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W TO 6N33W 7N50W...
FROM 7N54W TO 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N EAST OF 22W...
AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS WEAK. A RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
TEXAS...LEADING TO A SMALL SCALE RIDGE ACROSS LOUISIANA...AND
EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N92W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF MORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN
CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 73W/74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
OF 26N WEST OF 79W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...AND SOUTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W
AND 87W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 77W.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF JAMAICA TO 9N78W IN PANAMA. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS NOT ORGANIZED IN ANY ONE DIRECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DOES NOT LEAD
TO MUCH EXCEPT BROAD WESTERLY FLOW EAST OF 75W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N59W AND MAY
IMPACT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS.
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF MORE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN
CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W 22N53W TO 17N57W. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER WAS NEAR 24N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
36W...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO
30N BETWEEN 30W AND 29N51W 17N57W TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH 32N21W TO 28N22W 24N27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

$$
MT



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