[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.   A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THE
AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST CONVECTION ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 23N42W 14N48W 3N51W MOVING W 15-20
KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE.  CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SMALL
PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGES OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THEREFORE THE CURRENT
POSITION FOLLOWS CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN
85-88W...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 6N40W 10N50W 6N60W.
OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 25W-40W...AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N91W
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 30N81W 28N87W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  FURTHER NORTH... A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 32N81W
31N85W 32N88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-88W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N100W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN
STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES...FLORIDA...
AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25-30 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W.
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA ...AS NOTED
ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N82W.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  A DOMINATE
1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N34W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA



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