[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 19N41W TO 6N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 41W-44W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOSTLY S OF 13N. ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 81W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N25W 8N44W 5N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 49W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SE TO W CUBA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE NE GULF N OF 28N
E OF 87W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF COAST N OF 26N E OF 89W.
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N91W GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N FROM PUERTO RICO TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE DRY STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TO OVER S GEORGIA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 75W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE THE GULF
OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN TROUGH-RIDGE-
TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH NEAR 35N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 65W-80W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA/CUBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net