[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOSTLY S OF 14N. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W
WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N27W 8N38W 3N53W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N
E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 42W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SE TO W CUBA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH
DIPS TO OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/ALABAMA BORDER TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N91W GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 77W
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W. DRY
STABLE NEAR THE SURFACE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TO OVER S GEORGIA. A
SURFACE TROUGH DIPS TO OVER NE FLORIDA GIVING THE AREA N OF 30N
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY RATHER BENIGN TROUGH-RIDGE-
TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH NEAR 35N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF CUBA TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 76W-80W.

$$
WALLACE


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