[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 17N MOVING W
15-20 KT.  BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SHAPE PATTERN IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN
37W-42W.  A NEW SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS TO
10W.  AN OLDER SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS
TO BEYOND THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 22N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 71W/72W MOVING W
AT 20 KT.  THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS IS SHOWING A
PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH HAZY CONDITIONS.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 80W/81W MOVING W
15-20 KT.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SURROUNDING COUNTRIES
FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N25W 9N39W 4N51W.  BESIDES
FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N92W
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 30N83W 28N87W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 24N104W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 32N98W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N92W.  EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N
GULF STATES AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25-30 KT.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W.  SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA ...AS NOTED ON THE
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N74W.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N59W.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-82W.  A DOMINATE
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC.  A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N56W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 18N33W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA





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