[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOSTLY S OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF 13N FROM 61W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS A SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT
OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 88W IS NOW IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N26W 11N38W 6N49W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 49W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N92W EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER MEXICO TO THE TEXAS
BORDER DRAWING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 19N-23N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE E US TO THE N
GULF COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH DIPPING TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST E OF MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 27N88W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS MORNING
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION...TROPICAL WAVES...AND A NEAR PERSISTENT 1010 MB
LOW ALONG THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THIS COMBINATION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N
W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 73W INDUCING AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER HONDURAS. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 16N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED
BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES...SUCH AS A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
27N54W AND AN UPPER RIDGE-TROUGH  OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE
ATLC WITH A SERIES OF HIGH N OF THE REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N57W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF CUBA W OF 78W TO THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA.

$$
WALLACE



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