[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120505
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOSTLY S OF 15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N FROM 58W-66W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS A SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT
OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER/CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH LITTLE
INDICATION OF ITS PRESENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N31W 6N42W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 36W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 43W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF NE LOUISIANA NEAR 27N90W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N TO OVER SW TEXAS GIVING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 21N. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE SE US WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGHS INLAND AS WELL. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 27N90W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 26N E
OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE MOST ACTIVE TONIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION...TROPICAL WAVES...AND A NEAR PERSISTENT 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM
JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO OVER COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 75W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W INDUCING
AN UPPER TROUGH FROM HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N FROM PUERTO RICO TO
CENTRAL CUBA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED
BY RATHER BENIGN FEATURES...SUCH AS A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR
27N54W AND AN UPPER RIDGE-TROUGH  OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029
MB HIGH OVER THE SE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N38W
CONTINUING SW THROUGH 30N55W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS AND FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER
OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA.

$$
WALLACE




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