[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CLEARING IS NOTED BEYOND 200 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF
10N W OF 52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 68W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 6.5N40W 7.5N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-40W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS WEST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N85W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO COVER
THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR TO SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 25N E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...A TROPICAL
WAVE...A MID LEVEL LOW OVER W HONDURAS...AND A NEAR PERSISTENT
1009 MB LOW NEAR PANAMA. THIS COMBINATION IS  PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 80W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 75W
WHILE A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND A THIRD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W INDUCING
AN UPPER LOW NEAR HISPANIOLA. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE
AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE
SE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W CONTINUING SW AS A
RIDGE TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE ATLC.

$$
LL




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