[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT.
BROADENING LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
10N-17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N
W OF 50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N26W 7N38W 7N53W 5N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 31W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N85W EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC. AN INDUCED NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO
COAST. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO COVER
THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W AND WIDELY
N OF 27N FROM 85W-93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...A
TROPICAL WAVE...A MID LEVEL LOW OVER W HONDURAS...AND A NEAR
PERSISTENT 1009 MB LOW JUST S OF PANAMA. THIS COMBINATION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF A LINE
FROM 16N82W TO 20N88W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 75W WHILE A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND A THIRD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W INDUCING AN
UPPER LOW NEAR HAITI. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE
AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE
SE AZORES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W CONTINUING SW TO A
1023 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N65W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA S OF DAYTONA BEACH W OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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