[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100448
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED AT 10/0000 UTC ALONG 20W S OF 20N MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL ROTATION AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 10N.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA THUS MASKING ITS
IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 70W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION NOT IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N28W 5N43W 4N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N49W
TO 8N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES DIPPING S
INTO THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER
N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF E OF 91W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF
E OF 90W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WHILE A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N76W TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N/18N. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N
OF 18N. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER W CUBA IS MOVING WITHIN 90 NM
OFFSHORE FROM 78W-84W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
OF 17N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 86W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERING THE E GULF AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 27N69W TO 33N51W PRODUCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1034 MB
HIGH JUST NE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N40W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION OF THE ATLC WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 77W.

$$
WALLACE


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