[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO OTHER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
ANYWHERE NEAR THE WAVE ARE OUTSIDE THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N58W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES EASTERN HISPANIOLA WHILE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W
SOUTH OF 20N...CUTTING ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N83W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CENTER IS PART
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 90W. IT REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 11N15W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 7N23W 4N38W TO 4N52W IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND
20W...FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...FROM 4N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS
NEAR 31N90W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS TROUGH. THE PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 90W IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRESENT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO
26N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EAST ALONG 68W/69W...AND THE OTHER
ONE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTER PART OF THE AREA ALONG 85W/86W.
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES
EASTERN HISPANIOLA WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
17N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
CENTER IS PART OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 90W. IT REALLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THE 85W/86W WAVE.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN EAST
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W.
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 30N
TO 35N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
34N66W... AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO 33N73W
AND 34N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 34N39W TO 29N51W 29N57W 29N74W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THIS RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 28N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N45W...
NORTHWESTWARD TO 22N56W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 18N63W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N19W TO 23N24W TO 15N31W
AND 9N39W.

$$
MT




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