[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 10N.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W MOVING S OF 14N W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 10.5N FROM 54W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA THUS MASKING ITS
IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS BENEATH DRY STABLE AIR THUS THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N32W 9N52W 8N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 16W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM
26W-37W...FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 42W-50W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS FROM 57W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO ARKANSAS DIPS S OVER
TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA
FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF E OF
93W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SHOWERS WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. A SEMI-PERMANENT 1011 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER
HIGH OVER FLORIDA EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
17N/18N. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N. THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 19N FROM
74W-77W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR
27N79W COVERING THE E GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N62W BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
N OF 30N FROM 65W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE
AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 36N33W SW THROUGH 30N49W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE



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