[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 37W BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SSMI DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 08/1800 UTC S OF
13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W MOVING S OF 15N W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 11N FROM 43W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA THUS
MASKING ITS IDENTITY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN AREA OF INDUCED UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH
OVER FLORIDA AND THE E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA...THUS
MASKING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N25W 6N42W 9N50W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC TO 50W AND WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 10N14W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA DIPS S OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND THE
FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO S TEXAS BUT DO NOT REACH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1015
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY
CLEAR SHOWERS WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF
S OF 25N E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. A SEMI-PERMANENT 1009 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER
HIGH OVER FLORIDA EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
17N/18N. DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 19N FROM
72W-76W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
28N81W COVERING THE E GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH WITH DRY
STABLE AIR WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NE
OF THE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
26N34W CONTINUING SW THROUGH 30N53W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATE THE REGION E OF 70W
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS W OF 70W.

$$
WALLACE




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