[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N34W TO 10N37W 5N38W MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND IS CAUSING A POLEWARD
PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
TODAY CROSSING MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N
OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN CUBA TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 8N40W 8N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-57W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S
GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR
20N100W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 25N AND W OF 92W.  SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S MEXICO.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W.  LIKEWISE...SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE
GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MERGE WITH A WESTWARD
EXPANDING ATLANTIC RIDGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ALONG 28N.  CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.  A
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
75W-77W.  MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED E OF 80W
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 17N78W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-83W.  ELSEWHERE...THE SRN
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N HAS WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  EXPECT CONVECTION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION S OF 13N OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 77W-81W.  ELSEWHERE..A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 30N45W TO THE BAHAMAS AT
25N78W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E AT
25N40W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W.

$$
FORMOSA





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