[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N30W TO 5N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE MAINLY  S
OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N57W TO 6N58W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE WAVE ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N20W 12N40W 6N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 48W-52W

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE N GULF IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N87W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N. A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N88W. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE W
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N97W. FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION IS
BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALSO A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE S
COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...GENERALLY S OF 11N W
OF 80W. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE TRADES
MAINLY N OF 15N E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WITH LEFT OVER
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY N OF 25N W OF
71W. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ATLC RIDGE GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. DRY AIR ALOFT
COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ E OF 70W. THERE IS SOME
TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC...BUT OVERALL THESE UPPER
FEATURES ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY E OF 40W.

$$
DGS



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