[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N24W TO 5N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS GENERATING
SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THESE ISLANDS.

A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N21W OR ABOUT 550 NM E OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK
LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL TSTM ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED
IN A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 15N51W TO 6N52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 66W/67. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N1400W 6N37W 8N50W 10N61W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N88W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE SW LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS ARE
MOVING INLAND. AN UPPER LOW OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 16N93W IS
BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT
FOR A FEW TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE MOIST FURTHER W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N78W TO 27N79W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF THE N COAST OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 30N61W. FARTHER E THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING STILL
DOMINATING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN
30W-65W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N25W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 25N38W TO 21N43W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS CENTERED NEAR 18N22W. THE HIGH
PROVIDING A VERY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH ONLY
LOW-LEVEL STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

$$
DGS




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