[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 17N22W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A LARGER SCALE INVERTED V-TYPE STRUCTURE IS APPARENT FURTHER TO
THE NE...REACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT IS GENERATING SOME
CLOUDINESS OVER THESE ISLANDS.

A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 11N51W OR ABOUT 620 NM E OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WEAK
LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE MINIMAL TSTM ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED
IN A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 15N49W 6N51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 64W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N38W 7N50W 10N61W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRES AREA LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR ORLANDO. TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
SLOWLY DECREASING. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE
EASTERN GULF TO 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO
TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N89W TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MEXICO GUATEMALA BORDER
IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT
FOR DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HAITI. THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE MOIST FURTHER W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DECREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS N OF 27N W OF 74W, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 30N60W. FARTHER E THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING STILL
DOMINATING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE AZORES HIGH WITH 1030
MB CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 37N25W. A SERIES OF UPPER HIGHS ARE
PROVIDING A VERY STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

$$
DGS

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