[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N46W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 46W-47W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20N59W 6N59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 55W
AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ALONG 10N14W TO 6N30W 10N44W 11N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1015 MB LOW PRES NEAR TAMPA
BAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF
AROUND 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WWD. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W
OF 80W AND ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE E TIP OF CUBA AND HAS BECOME
MORE ELONGATED IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ANOTHER AREA
OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
OTHERWISE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W 28N72W 29N80W TO 1015 MB
LOW PRES NEAR TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE JUST N OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLC TO
24N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE ATLC
FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 22N59W TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 28N45W TO 31N42W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N24W TO 26N37W.

$$
DGS




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