[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050016
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 11N44W...
OR ABOUT 1000 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N48W 9N50W 10N53W 12N57W.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 20N56W 12N58W 5N58W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 5N30W 8N39W 9N46W 9N50W 11N56W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 6N20W 5N30W
3N40W 2N46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 30N. CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO RIGHT UP AGAINST THE BORDER OF
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES
RIGHT UP AGAINST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
A CENTRAL TEXAS CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N99W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS MEXICO TO 25N EAST OF 107W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS
BARELY TOUCHING NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM THE LOWER TEXAS CYCLONIC
CENTER. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N55W TO 28N66W TO 28N74W.
A WARM FRONT STARTS NEAR 28N74W AND GOES TO 29N79W AND TO
A SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N82W.
A TROUGH TRAILS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 25N84W
AND 26N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 30N WEST OF 72W. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING/DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
FROM 23N IN THE BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W IN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA FROM 12N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 93W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO
HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
THIS HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER STILL COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 67W...WESTERN HISPANIOLA...CUBA
EAST OF 80W...AND JAMAICA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
HAITI TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND WEAKENING IN JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W
AND 84W. THIS AREA GOES FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO NORTHEASTERN
COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N55W TO 28N66W TO 28N74W.
A WARM FRONT STARTS NEAR 28N74W AND GOES TO 29N79W AND TO
A SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N82W.
A TROUGH TRAILS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 25N84W
AND 26N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 30N WEST OF 72W. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING/DEVELOPING/DISSIPATING
FROM 23N IN THE BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W IN FLORIDA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
28N49W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HAITI
CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED IN
A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER
STILL COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 24N WEST
OF 67W...WESTERN HISPANIOLA...CUBA EAST OF 80W...AND JAMAICA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N26W
TO 23N33W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 13N44W.

$$
MT




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