[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N42W...OR ABOUT 1200 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AS DECREASED SOME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N53W 4N53W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 6N25W 10N40W 10N61W. EXCEPT FOR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE W COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NW FROM THE LOW NEAR MOBILE LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN OFF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 20N86W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER HAITI. NO MAJOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NEAR THE CUBA AND HAITI AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY EXTENDS FROM 31N60W 26N73W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRES
CENTER OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N38W TO 25N61W. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS COVERS THE AREA FROM 35W TO 60W WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM 32N41W TO
28N44W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N27W TO 23N35W.

$$
DGS




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