[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N41W...OR ABOUT 1200 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AS DECREASED SOME WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17N51W 6N52W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 8N24W 10N40W 9N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE W COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NW FROM THE LOW NEAR MOBILE LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN OFF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 20N85W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER HAITI. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NEAR THE CUBA AND HAITI AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD EXTENDS FROM 31N60W 26N73W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRES CENTER
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO 23N61W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS COVERS THE AREA FROM 35W TO 60W WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM 32N43W TO 28N45W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 65W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N27W TO
22N36W.

$$
DGS



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