[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 10N39W...
OR ABOUT 1300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 20N48W 12N51W 4N51W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 8N24W 10N36W 10N50W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
9N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
30W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OF
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES RIGHT
UP AGAINST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL
TEXAS CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N99W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO
TO 25N EAST OF 107W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
TEXAS EAST OF 102W BEYOND 32N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPECIFICALLY ARE IN THE TEXAS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM 25.5N
TO 27.5N BETWEEN 95.5W AND 98.5W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW HUGS
THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
FLORIDA SOUTH OF 28.5N EAST OF 82W...ALSO IN A DIFFERENT REGIME
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N75W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N80W...AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BEYOND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 25N83W AND NORTHWESTWARD TO
THE WESTERNMOST SECTOR OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...OFF WESTERN CUBA. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SECOND MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER HAITI. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND OTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RANGE
FROM ONE END OF CUBA TO THE OTHER END. A FEW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CELLS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF HAITI. SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING
FROM NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN
COASTAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NICARAGUA NORTH OF 13N AT
THE END OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE AREA OF SOME
RAIN CELLS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 8N81W IN PANAMA. THE ITCZ
PASSES RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD/SOMETIMES STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO
A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N66W TO 27N73W TO THE
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST OF 32N53W
27N62W 24N72W 27N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 24N61W TO
29N43W AND BEYOND 32N38W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 64W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 26N51W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N25W TO 25N28W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N29W TO 16N40W.

$$
MT

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