[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 19N46W TO 3N47W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-8N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 91W/92W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. STRONG CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE EXTREME
PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 10N46W 8N59W. A 1014 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NE
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI
AND GALVESTON. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SE
GULF W OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 24N84W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE KEYS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST S OF HAITI NEAR
18N73W. LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA COMBINED SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC CONTINUES TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOME ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC W OF 73W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE AREA FROM JUST
E OF BERMUDA TO 29N75W TO N FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N57W SW
TO HISPANIOLA. UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W
TO 23N57W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 62W-30W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W.

$$
DGS


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