[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 18N43W TO 4N45W MOVING W 15 KT. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W/90W S OF
22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
ENHANCING CONVECTION NOT NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N23W 9N32W 7N59W. A BROAD
1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 8.5N35.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 14W-21W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM OVER SW MEXICO
JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS TO OVER LOUISIANA AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF
90W. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND N OF 27N E OF
87W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A
1019 MB HIGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA GIVING THE SE GULF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN TO 70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N81W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO
GIVE THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS GIVING THE AREA FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED TRADE
WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC W OF 75W WITH A COLD FRONT DIPPING JUST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH 32N68W 30N75W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N70W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 25N76W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH JUST N OF HISPANIOLA 22N70W INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
GENERATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO BEYOND 32N64W. UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM 50W-65W WITH A PORTION
DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N57W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW AFRICA S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 24N45W. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 75W WITH FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE




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