[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE W ALONG 43W/44W S OF
19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. EARLIER TODAY...THIS WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED E ALONG 35W TO MATCH UP WITH THE FORMATION OF A
BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AFTER ANALYZING A LONG-TERM
SATELLITE LOOP...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE LEFT
BEHIND A PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE ITCZ WHICH HAS FORMED INTO THE
LOW. THE LARGER SCALE WAVE IS STILL DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE SAT
IMAGES AS A SURGE-LIKE STRUCTURE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS
MOISTURE FIELDS AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH GAVE ME
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADJUSTMENT. REGARDLESS...THE MORE
INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE E OF THE WAVE
ANALYZED 1014 MB NEAR 8N36W. WHILE THIS LOW DOES HAVE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AND CONFINED WITHIN 180 NM S AND W OF THE CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W/89W
S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. LITTLE WAVE STRUCTURE IS NOTED IN THIS
VICINITY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS WAVE COUPLE BE
FURTHER W NEAR 94W TO MESH UP WITH A MID-LEVEL SWIRL WHICH HAS
BECOME MORE EVIDENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO HOLD CONTINUITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N22W 9N33W 8N43W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS E OF 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE TAMPA BAY COAST NEAR 28N83.5W.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E GULF. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS WILL LIKELY HELP FIRE UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE FLA PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE LOW ALIGNED ALONG 93W. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SE TEXAS AND THE
EXTREME NW GULF. AT THE SFC...WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26N87W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF. HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY WINDS
ARE EVIDENT IN THE SW PORTION WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DUE TO A NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A
RIDGE WWD TOWARD JAMAICA. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN FOLDS INTO A
TROUGH E OF THERE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE S CARIB NEAR 13N76W. THIS PATTERN
IS ALLOWING MODESTLY DRY NLY UPPER FLOW TO DOMINATE PROVIDING A
FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE CARIB WATERS....EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NW AND SE CORNERS WHERE THERE IS A BROKEN LAYER OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
SCATTERED PATCHES OF DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER PANAMA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...A 1036 Z
QSCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIB...STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL PORTION.  THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CARRYING TYPICAL LOW CLOUD STREAMERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED S ALONG THE NRN BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST. A SFC TROUGH LIES TO THE
S OF THIS BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 30N72W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST UPPER
SWLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE...BETWEEN A VERY LARGE POLAR LOW AND AN
UPPER HIGH NEAR 24N65W...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 66W-76W. LIGHTER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIE W OF 77W. FARTHER E...RIDGING DOMINATES BOTH AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT. THE SFC AZORES HIGH IS ANALYZED 1033 MB NEAR
35N30W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE ATLC. STRONG NLY WINDS ARE NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST DUE
TO THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND INVERTED
TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FURTHER S
ALIGNED E-W ALONG 24N. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING
ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net