[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 14N DRIFTING W. THERE IS
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 86W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. IT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...BUT MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA WHERE STRONG TSTMS AND
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TODAY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 6N25W 8N36W 7N50W 6N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS W OF 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 28N88W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
ON A HIGH OVER BELIZE COVERS THE FAR SE GULF AND CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE
REGION CHARACTERIZED BY A COUPLE OF 1018 MB SFC HIGHS...ONE IS
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W. THE SECOND ONE IS OVER
NORTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF E OF 90W...AND 10-15 KT FROM THE SE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING THE SE OF U.S.. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH 1015 MB SFC LOW OVER GEORGIA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
CENTERED OVER BELIZE. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN
OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER PROBABLY RELATED TO THE EPAC ITCZ. AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NWD
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE REGION
THROUGH 31N75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE NW
BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 31N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N58W WITH A TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS E OF
THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W FROM 21N-30N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDAS-AZORES HIGH IS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 70W. PATCHES OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRES OVER AFRICA IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR



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