[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012250
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 13N36W TO 4N39W DRIFTING W. THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 21N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER HIGH ENHANCING
CONVECTION NOT NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE AREA FROM 15N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N21W 8N36W 7N50W 9N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA...FROM
27W-35W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MOST OF THE SE US
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO S TEXAS. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR SE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED INT HE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH INLAND OVER THE W COAST OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N81W BUT IS ONLY GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOME ISOLATED
TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
MIAMI WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST N
OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N78W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. THIS
UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO BEYOND 32N71W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE SE US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OFF THE CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM
54W-70W WITH A PORTION DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N59W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N61W TO 31N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO 26N56W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW
AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N45W. OTHERWISE AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net