[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 13N34W TO 3N37W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.  IT
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO PANAMA.  A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO S OF 20N...E OF THE
WAVE WAVE AXIS TO 50W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 9N36W 7N50W 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-24W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 29N-34W...AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 36W-40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 93W-96W DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.  A
SURFACE TROUGH TRAVERSES CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 28N80W 26N83W
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY 5-10
KT OVER THE ERN GULF E OF 90W...AND 10-15 KT OVER THE WRN GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 29N89W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 95W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W.  EXPECT
THE SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE.  SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AND ALONG THE E
GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W.  A TIGHTENING OF
THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
BELIZE.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE
ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 18N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN
70W-90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOST PREVALENT OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N76W 28N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 73W-78W.  A WEAK 10120 MB LOW
IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N60W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.   A
DOMINATE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W.  DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS
PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION N OF
BAHAMAS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 73W-78W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N59W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-70W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 57W-61W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N48W.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 24N28W.

$$
FORMOSA





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