[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 13N33W TO 4N36W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE E OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. IT IS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA. WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MON.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 8N33W 6N45W 7N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80-120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS E OF 34W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS NEAR 29N92W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. A 1014 MB
LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE
W ATLC. A WEAK 1017 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N89W. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE OVER THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N812 BUT IS ONLY
GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE AREA NEAR 31N78W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W.
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1014 MB LOW LOCATED
OVER FLORIDA ALSO EXTENDS OFF THE COAST REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS
AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF 20N FROM 40W-70W WITH A PORTION
DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LOWS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW WITH ONE LOCATED IN THE REGION
NEAR 29N58W. A WEAK 1022 SFC LOW...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
IS ANALYZED ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP NEAR 27N60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE SFC LOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
GR





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