[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N21W 1N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE US DRAPING FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO SE LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
1016 MB LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF NEAR 28N92W TO OFF THE MEXICAN
COAST NEAR 21N97W. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E
GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OF
86W ACROSS FLORIDA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W
ALONG 26N91W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
WINDS OF 110 TO 130 EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE SE US AND
GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF W OF 85W. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THEW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF WITH A
RE-INFORCING SURFACE HIGH MOVING S FROM THE CENTRAL US BEHIND
THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N67W NE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE
W CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM
HAITI TO E HONDURAS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN
RATHER CLEAR. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT WAS IN N
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC LAST NIGHT HAS RETREATED N WHILE THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION EXTENDING 32N47W SW TO 22N67W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE N HAITI COAST NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 26N WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA AND OVER FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS ALSO BISECTING THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH
JUST S OF BERMUDA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N24W S TO 12N32W. A
WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N28W WITH A WEAK SURFACE
EXTENDING S TO 27N28W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER
AFRICA AND OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 22W AND IS ADVECTING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA GIVING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net