[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310024 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 38W TO 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80-100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-35W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
35W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER NORTHERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...CORRECTION TO LAST SENTENCE
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. AT 21Z...A WEAK 1016 MB SFC LOW IS NEAR 28N94W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 22N97W. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS
OF 110 TO 130 TRAVELS ACROSS N MEXICO INTO THE N GULF...THEN
CONTINUING OVER THE W ATLC. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING THE E HALF OF THE GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN OVER THE W
HALF OF THE GULF AND CENTRAL MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SE
U.S. AND THE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC WHERE THERE IS A
WEAK 1021 MB HIGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E TO SE
FLOW OVER THE E GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. MODERATE NE WINDS
OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THU
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF. SLY RETURN FLOW
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STRONG WITHIN
36-48 HOURS FORECAST TO REACH 25-30 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY WLY
UPPER WINDS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ALSO AFFECTING JAMAICA
AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF MOISTURE
DRIVEN BY THE TRADES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BASIN LATE WED THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE W-CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC ALONG 25W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N48W
THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY E
OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE GULF
INTO THE ATLC BY STRONG WLY WINDS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WITH A
1031 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE AZORES. INCREASED PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE FAR E ATLC HAS RAISED WINDS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST WIND
UP TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

$$
GR





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