[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AT 35W TO 2S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 8W-12W...AND BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0900 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR
26N84W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING MAINLY E DURING THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW
TO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE FT. MYERS AREA.
A COLD FRONT RUNS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN
TO BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. VIGOROUS COLD AIR IS OCCURRING
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST/WEST GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A
RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUD COVER OVER THIS REGION JUST E OF
THE FRONT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN NW OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS 30-35 KT IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH
OF THE GULF. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
TODAY AND N TO NE WINDS 20 KT UP TO GALE FORCE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A NEW SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE EAST REACHING NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS
EVERYWHERE BUT MAINLY E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS 15 KT UP TO
25 KT DOMINATE. EVEN THESE MODEST TRADES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT DAY AS A COLD FRONT REDUCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED
OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA.
TYPICAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO NE
HONDURAS.   I

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG W TO NW WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WWD FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY AIR IS ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO 28N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTED BY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND INTENSIFY
INCREASING WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH WESTERN
BAHAMAS/CUBA LATE TODAY. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO
25N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N41W...THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK CENTERS OF HIGH PRES ARE OVER CUBA...NE OF PUERTO
RICO AND NEAR 22N25W.


$$
GR





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