[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N17W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 34W CONTINUING TO 3S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N
CONNECTING TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W. THE
AIRMASS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS BY NO MEANS ARCTIC BUT IT
DOES SEPARATE A COOL TO MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT RUNS
SWD FROM THE LOW TO S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W THEN STATIONARY NWD
ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING NLY GALE FORCE
WINDS W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
PLENTY OF THICK CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 24N.
HOWEVER...BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN THE N GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 23N98W
30N86W. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET
ADVECTING IN FROM THE EPAC. IN LINE WITH IMAGERY...SEVERAL
STATIONS IN S TEXAS ARE REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. A
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST BY MANY
OF THE NWP MODELS TO PRESS SE PROVIDING SUPPORT TO DRAG THE COLD
FRONT THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW...SO MORE WINTER-LIKE
WEATHER IS IN STORE THE SE GULF AND S FLA ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE UPPER AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 80W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR
ALOFT EXISTS EVERYWHERE...STRONGEST E OF 75W ENHANCED BY NLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE...WHICH
HAS BEEN ON THE STRONG SIDE MUCH OF THE WINTER SO FAR...IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE N. AT THE SFC...TRADES ARE STRONGEST N OF
THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE AN 11Z QSCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA 25-30
KT WINDS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE AS THE GRAD REMAINS
WEAKENED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SW ATLC.
TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BENEATH THE STRONG MID
LEVEL CAP...IS TRACKING W WITH SOME CLOUDS BECOMING BANKED UP
AGAINST THE TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRES BECOMES
REINFORCED N OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY TO NWLY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC S OF A DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE N ATLC AND NE OF THE
CARIBBEAN RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE HORIZONTALLY
ALIGNED ALONG 32N52W 27N63W 25N77W THEN STATIONARY TO S FLA.
DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
BASICALLY DEFINED BY A BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINE AND A SLIGHT
TEMP CONTRAST. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N WITHIN 300
NM E OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIES IN THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR THE AZORES ALONG
32N23W 25N30W...THEN CONTINUING WSW AS A TROF ALONG 23N41W
19N51W. SIMILARLY TO THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/W ATLC...DEEP
MOISTURE IS MINIMAL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN
27W-50W...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS WEAK
DUE TO THE TWO FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWO WEAK HIGH PRES
CENTERS. ONE OF THESE HIGHS IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED
AT 1018 MB NEAR 22N63W AND THE OTHER IS 1020 MB NEAR 30N35W. IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF A VERY
BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS FLOW BECOMES SWLY SE
OF THE OCCLUDED DEEP LOW...SE OF A LINE FROM 6N30W
17N16W....ADVECTING ISOLATED POCKETS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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