[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N1W 4N10W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
BETWEEN 13W AND 35W. TRANSVERSE BANDING...POSSIBLY INDICATING
SOME UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE...IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 14N19W BEYOND
16N16W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD AND GRADUAL UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 26N80W 22N87W
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 27N80W TO FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N81W INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO 23N95W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N103W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR
A SURFACE LOW CENTER TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ALONG
THE FRONT...THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE...AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD EVER-SO-SLOWLY AT 48 HOURS AND
AT 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVER THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 17N60W
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N65W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN
60W AND JAMAICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SIMILAR CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND
65W...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W...NORTH OF 16N AT THE
HONDURAS COAST WEST OF 85W...AND FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER SOUTHWARD TO PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE WATERS AND INLAND ACROSS THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES.
THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND
80W IS EXPERIENCING AND IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS
FROM 9 TO 13 FEET. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN AREA
OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRACTICALLY ALL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY
WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 35N43W TO A 1019 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO A SECOND 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N60W TO 22N70W. A SEPARATE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF CUBA NEAR 23N78W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N30W TO 22N40W TO 20N46W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N46W TO 18N50W TO 17N60W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS FRONT...PASSING
THROUGH 31N31W TO 26N29W 23N29W 18N30W 14N34W 10N40W.

$$
MT




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