[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231137
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N10W EQ30W
EQ40W 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W AND 18W.SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHILE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  AT 0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS WSW FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N90W TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN CONTINUES N ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
POOLING AGAINST THESE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE US
GULF COASTAL REGION HAVE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING.
A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA RELATED
TO THE FRONT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER TODAY AND STALL. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. AS
THE LOW FORMS...NLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FUNNELED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST/WEST GULF. THESE WINDS MAY
REACH GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SUBSIDENCE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE REGION. STRONG TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MAINLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N73W...THEN CONTINUES SW
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT COULD REACH GALE
FORCE BETWEEN 70W AND 50W NORTH OF 29N IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A
GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 32N32W TO 21N44 WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 18N62W.
A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THIS POINT TO THE MONA PASSAGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140-150 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N. A 80-90 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT WEST OF 40W. A 1019 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
27N62W. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SFC HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL
FEATURE OVER THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

$$
GR


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