[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230537
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W EQ30W
1S46W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 3.5N14W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE COOL AIR IS BANKING UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE
OF THE SIERRA MADRES AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED THERE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS IMPACTING NEARLY THE
ENTIRE US GULF COASTAL REGION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY
REACH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND STALL. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST/WEST GULF.
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO DIG.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SUBSIDENCE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. STRONG TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N75W...THEN CONTINUES SW
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT COULD REACH GALE FORCE BETWEEN
70W AND 50W NORTH OF 29N IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GALE WARNING IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO
20N45W TO 17N58W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED AS A
CONTINUATION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EAST OF
45W. ONLY SMALL SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT WEST OF 45W. A 1020 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
26N63W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SFC HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONTAL
FEATURE OVER THE ISLANDS SHOULD START WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE FRONT JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE
US SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
TO NEAR CUBA BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

$$
GR




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